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Sandefjord vs HamKam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 15:00

Sandefjord

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HamKam

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-19.2%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.8%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-18.8%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 52.6% 1.90 -13.6%

Draw 26.9% 26.7% 3.75 +0.5%

Away win 27.6% 27.8% 3.60 -0.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Over 3.5 29.2% 37.0% 2.70 -12.7%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 41.4% 56.5% 1.77 -26.7%

Away O1.5 30.9% 37.7% 2.65 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandefjord1.4

HamKam1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDEFJORD · PPG 1.60

HAMKAM · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=45.5%

Win probability 1X2

Sandefjord (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -13.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.5%

HamKam (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandefjord face HamKam in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandefjord a 46% chance, the draw 27% and HamKam 28%, so Sandefjord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sandefjord and 1.0 for HamKam (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandefjord are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.50 for HamKam. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Sandefjord vs HamKam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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