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Rosenborg vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 15:00

Rosenborg

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kristiansund

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-18.9%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.6%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-18.9%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-14.2%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 61.0% 1.64 -21.9%

Draw 26.5% 25.3% 3.95 +2.8%

Away win 25.9% 20.0% 5.00 +17.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Over 3.5 29.2% 38.2% 2.62 -14.1%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 42.4% 61.7% 1.62 -31.3%

Away O1.5 23.7% 31.3% 3.20 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosenborg1.4

Kristiansund0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENBORG · PPG 1.33

KRISTIANSUND · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Rosenborg (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -21.9%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +2.8%

Kristiansund (A) 25.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosenborg face Kristiansund in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosenborg a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Kristiansund 26%, so Rosenborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rosenborg and 0.9 for Kristiansund (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosenborg are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Kristiansund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Rosenborg vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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