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Brann vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 15:00

Brann

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Start

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 75.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.3%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.3%1-14.4%1-22.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.1%2-17.3%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-18.1%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-015.1%4+-115.6%4+-28.1%4+-32.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 71.4% 1.40 -10.0%

Draw 16.8% 20.8% 4.80 -11.6%

Away win 18.9% 14.7% 6.80 +17.1%

Over 2.5 70.7% 67.6% 1.48 +4.6%

Over 3.5 49.1% 45.5% 2.20 +8.0%

BTTS 62.4% 61.7% 1.62 +1.1%

Home O1.5 75.9% 73.5% 1.36 +3.2%

Away O1.5 34.3% 28.6% 3.50 +20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.4%

H 64% / xG 3.3-1.0 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 3–0 7.8%

#3 2–1✓ 7.3%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 4–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brann3.3

Start1.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BRANN · PPG 1.20

START · PPG 0.14

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs P(Home)=64.3%

Win probability 1X2

Brann (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -10.0%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -11.6%

Start (A) 18.9%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brann face Start in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brann a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Start 19%, so Brann are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Brann and 1.0 for Start (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brann are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.14 for Start. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Brann vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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