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Aalesund vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

Aalesund

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Molde

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.3%0-24.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.9%1-110.5%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.2%3-14.8%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.9%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 32.3% 3.10 +35.2%

Draw 23.8% 26.7% 3.75 -6.5%

Away win 32.6% 47.6% 2.10 -31.5%

Over 2.5 61.8% 64.5% 1.55 -4.2%

Over 3.5 39.9% 42.6% 2.35 -6.2%

BTTS 62.4% 69.0% 1.45 -9.5%

Home O1.5 52.5% 45.5% 2.20 +15.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.4%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2✓ 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalesund1.7

Molde1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AALESUND · PPG 1.00

MOLDE · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Aalesund (H) 43.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +35.2%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.5%

Molde (A) 32.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalesund face Molde in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalesund a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Molde 33%, so Aalesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Aalesund and 1.5 for Molde (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalesund are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Molde. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Aalesund vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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