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Tromso vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 16:00

Tromso

PPG 2.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Valerenga

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.2%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.5%1-110.0%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.3%3-16.1%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-14.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 57.8% 1.73 -6.6%

Draw 22.3% 27.0% 3.70 -10.5%

Away win 23.7% 22.2% 4.50 +4.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 32.9% 36.4% 2.75 -9.5%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 55.1% 58.8% 1.70 -6.3%

Away O1.5 21.2% 33.3% 3.00 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 8.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tromso1.9

Valerenga0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TROMSO · PPG 2.13

VALERENGA · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Tromso (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -6.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.5%

Valerenga (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tromso face Valerenga in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tromso a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Valerenga 24%, so Tromso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tromso and 0.7 for Valerenga (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tromso are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.80 for Valerenga. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.0%.

Tromso vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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