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Tromso vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 16:00

Tromso

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Valerenga

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.2%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.5%1-110.0%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.3%3-16.1%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-14.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 57.8% 1.73 -6.6%

Draw 22.3% 27.0% 3.70 -10.5%

Away win 23.7% 22.2% 4.50 +4.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 32.9% 36.4% 2.75 -9.5%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 55.1% 58.8% 1.70 -6.3%

Away O1.5 21.2% 33.3% 3.00 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tromso1.9

Valerenga0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TROMSO · PPG 2.13

VALERENGA · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Tromso (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -6.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.5%

Valerenga (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tromso face Valerenga in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tromso a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Valerenga 24%, so Tromso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tromso and 0.7 for Valerenga (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tromso are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.80 for Valerenga. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Tromso vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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