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Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 12:00

Fredrikstad

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lillestrom

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.7%0-26.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.5%1-112.5%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.1%2-18.1%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.6%3-13.5%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 34.5% 2.90 +14.3%

Draw 26.2% 29.0% 3.45 -5.8%

Away win 34.4% 43.5% 2.30 -20.9%

Over 2.5 54.0% 55.6% 1.80 -2.8%

Over 3.5 32.9% 33.3% 3.00 -1.3%

BTTS 55.6% 62.5% 1.60 -11.0%

Home O1.5 41.2% 41.7% 2.40 -1.1%

Away O1.5 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fredrikstad1.3

Lillestrom1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 2.00

LILLESTROM · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Fredrikstad (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +14.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.8%

Lillestrom (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fredrikstad face Lillestrom in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fredrikstad a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Lillestrom 34%, so Fredrikstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fredrikstad and 1.3 for Lillestrom (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fredrikstad are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Lillestrom. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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