Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Brann vs Sarpsborg 08

Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 11 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Brann

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sarpsborg 08

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.4%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.1%1-19.3%1-25.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.1%3-16.9%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.0%4+-23.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Draw 22.6% 23.1% 4.33 -1.3%

Away win 23.6% 21.7% 4.60 +5.1%

Over 2.5 64.1% 67.6% 1.48 -5.1%

Over 3.5 40.3% 45.5% 2.20 -11.3%

BTTS 61.0% 66.7% 1.50 -8.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 67.6% 1.48 -7.6%

Away O1.5 31.7% 37.0% 2.70 -14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.0%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brann2.1

Sarpsborg 081.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BRANN · PPG 1.50

SARPSBORG 08 · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Win probability 1X2

Brann (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.3%

Sarpsborg 08 (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brann face Sarpsborg 08 in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brann a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Sarpsborg 08 24%, so Brann are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Brann and 1.1 for Sarpsborg 08 (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brann are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.60 for Sarpsborg 08. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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