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Aalesund vs HamKam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 11 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Aalesund

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HamKam

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.6%0-24.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.6%1-19.6%1-28.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.2%2-27.0%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.8%3-14.7%3-24.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.0%4+-22.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 47.6% 2.10 -16.4%

Draw 23.4% 27.0% 3.70 -8.1%

Away win 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

Over 2.5 64.1% 61.7% 1.62 +3.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 39.2% 2.55 +3.3%

BTTS 62.6% 66.7% 1.50 -6.1%

Home O1.5 51.2% 54.1% 1.85 -5.3%

Away O1.5 50.8% 43.5% 2.30 +16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.6%

H 40% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2✓ 7.0%

#5 2–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalesund1.7

HamKam1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AALESUND · PPG 1.00

HAMKAM · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Aalesund (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.4%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.1%

HamKam (A) 36.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalesund face HamKam in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalesund a 40% chance, the draw 23% and HamKam 37%, so Aalesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Aalesund and 1.7 for HamKam (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalesund are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.33 for HamKam. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Aalesund vs HamKam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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