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Molde vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Molde

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sandefjord

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-17.3%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-111.5%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-14.8%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 62.5% 1.60 -16.2%

Draw 24.5% 23.1% 4.33 +3.6%

Away win 23.1% 21.1% 4.75 +5.8%

Over 2.5 46.6% 64.5% 1.55 -27.8%

Over 3.5 27.7% 42.6% 2.35 -20.9%

BTTS 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Home O1.5 46.8% 65.4% 1.53 -28.4%

Away O1.5 16.7% 34.5% 2.90 -30.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Molde1.6

Sandefjord0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLDE · PPG 2.40

SANDEFJORD · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Molde (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -16.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.6%

Sandefjord (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Molde face Sandefjord in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molde a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Sandefjord 23%, so Molde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Molde and 0.7 for Sandefjord (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molde are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Sandefjord. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Molde vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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