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N. Carolina W vs Washington S. W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 22:30

N. Carolina W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Washington S. W

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.3%0-25.8%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.5%1-111.8%1-28.2%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.5%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.0%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 33.3% 3.00 +26.6%

Draw 24.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.1%

Away win 33.1% 46.5% 2.15 -28.8%

Over 2.5 60.2% 54.1% 1.85 +11.4%

Over 3.5 36.1% 31.3% 3.20 +15.5%

BTTS 60.3% 59.9% 1.67 +0.7%

Home O1.5 43.8% 38.5% 2.60 +13.9%

Away O1.5 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

N. Carolina W1.4

Washington S. W1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

N. CAROLINA W · PPG 1.67

WASHINGTON S. W · PPG 1.83

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

N. Carolina W (H) 42.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +26.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.1%

Washington S. W (A) 33.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

N. Carolina W face Washington S. W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives N. Carolina W a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Washington S. W 33%, so N. Carolina W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for N. Carolina W and 1.4 for Washington S. W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, N. Carolina W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.83 for Washington S. W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 0-2.

N. Carolina W vs Washington S. W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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