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San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 18:00

San Miguel

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ferro Carril

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-115.3%0-28.0%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.9%1-113.4%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.6%2-15.9%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.7%3-11.7%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% — — —

Draw 30.9% — — —

Away win 35.7% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 156 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -13.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.3%

#4 1–0 12.9%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Miguel0.9

Ferro Carril1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 1.67

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 2.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.10)

Win probability 1X2

San Miguel (H) 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ferro Carril (A) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Miguel face Ferro Carril in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Miguel a 33% chance, the draw 31% and Ferro Carril 36%, so Ferro Carril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for San Miguel and 1.0 for Ferro Carril (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Miguel are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.10 for Ferro Carril.

San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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