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CA Estudiantes vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 18:00

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Atletico Mitre

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-110.2%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-17.9%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Draw 27.2% 35.1% 2.85 -13.5%

Away win 23.7% 19.6% 5.10 +12.5%

Over 2.5 44.3% 28.6% 3.50 +55.0%

Over 3.5 25.5% 12.5% 8.00 +62.4%

BTTS 48.4% 36.4% 2.75 +33.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 38.2% 2.62 +0.9%

Away O1.5 21.2% 14.3% 7.00 +29.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 17.1%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Estudiantes1.2

Atletico Mitre0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.44

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

CA Estudiantes (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -11.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -13.5%

Atletico Mitre (A) 23.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Estudiantes face Atletico Mitre in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Estudiantes a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Atletico Mitre 24%, so CA Estudiantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for CA Estudiantes and 0.7 for Atletico Mitre (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Estudiantes are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.70 for Atletico Mitre. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +62.4%. This match finished 3-0.

CA Estudiantes vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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