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Tristan Suarez vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 18:00

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.9%0-110.7%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.9%1-111.7%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-16.5%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.2%3-12.4%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 51.3% 1.95 -3.9%

Draw 31.0% 37.0% 2.70 -16.3%

Away win 19.7% 22.2% 4.50 -6.8%

Over 2.5 36.0% 29.9% 3.35 +20.6%

Over 3.5 17.6% 12.5% 8.00 +24.5%

BTTS 45.6% 38.5% 2.60 +18.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 35.7% 2.80 +0.5%

Away O1.5 19.1% 18.2% 5.50 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 156 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -13.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.6%

H 49% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.9%

#2 1–0 20.9%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez1.1

Nueva Chicago0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.56

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -3.9%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.3%

Nueva Chicago (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face Nueva Chicago in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Nueva Chicago 20%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tristan Suarez and 0.6 for Nueva Chicago (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.25 for Nueva Chicago. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.5%.

Tristan Suarez vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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