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San Telmo vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 18:00

San Telmo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Chaco For Ever

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-18.1%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-111.4%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-18.1%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-13.8%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 48.8% 2.05 +9.5%

Draw 27.1% 35.7% 2.80 -14.5%

Away win 19.6% 25.6% 3.90 -14.1%

Over 2.5 41.4% 34.7% 2.88 +19.2%

Over 3.5 22.5% 16.7% 6.00 +21.0%

BTTS 46.5% 44.4% 2.25 +4.6%

Home O1.5 42.5% 36.4% 2.75 +16.9%

Away O1.5 19.1% 20.0% 5.00 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.5%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 13.1%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Telmo1.4

Chaco For Ever0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN TELMO · PPG 1.40

CHACO FOR EVER · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=53.4%

Win probability 1X2

San Telmo (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.5%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.5%

Chaco For Ever (A) 19.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Telmo face Chaco For Ever in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Telmo a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Chaco For Ever 20%, so San Telmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for San Telmo and 0.6 for Chaco For Ever (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Telmo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.33 for Chaco For Ever. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 1-3.

San Telmo vs Chaco For Ever Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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