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Los Andes vs Ciudad Bolivar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 18:00

Los Andes

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-035.0%0-114.3%0-22.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.5%1-19.2%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.2%2-12.9%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.5%3-10.6%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 52.6% 1.90 -24.0%

Draw 35.8% 38.2% 2.62 -6.2%

Away win 24.2% 19.0% 5.25 +16.2%

Over 2.5 32.6% 27.8% 3.60 +17.4%

Over 3.5 12.4% 12.5% 8.00 -0.5%

BTTS 45.6% 35.7% 2.80 +27.7%

Home O1.5 33.3% 36.4% 2.75 -8.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 12.5% 8.00 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 156 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -13.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.6%

H 40% / xG 0.6-0.4 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 35.0%

#2 1–0 22.5%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Andes0.6

Ciudad Bolivar0.4

COMBINED 1.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.6% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANDES · PPG 1.40

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.89

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.40) vs Away GOOD (1.89)

Win probability 1X2

Los Andes (H) 40.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -24.0%

Draw 35.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -6.2%

Ciudad Bolivar (A) 24.2%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Andes face Ciudad Bolivar in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Andes a 40% chance, the draw 36% and Ciudad Bolivar 24%, so Los Andes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Los Andes and 0.4 for Ciudad Bolivar (1.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Andes are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.89 for Ciudad Bolivar. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +27.7%.

Los Andes vs Ciudad Bolivar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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