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Deportivo Moron vs D. Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

D. Madryn

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 39.2% — a clear edge.

+41.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.8%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.7%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-16.1%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 52.4% 1.91 +1.6%

Draw 23.4% 36.4% 2.75 -21.4%

Away win 23.4% 21.7% 4.60 +4.6%

Over 2.5 54.0% 30.8% 3.25 +75.5%

Over 3.5 33.1% 14.3% 7.00 +131.7%

BTTS 55.6% 39.2% 2.55 +41.8%

Home O1.5 55.1% 37.7% 2.65 +46.0%

Away O1.5 23.7% 18.2% 5.50 +18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 156 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -13.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron1.8

D. Madryn0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.56

D. MADRYN · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +1.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.4%

D. Madryn (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face D. Madryn in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 53% chance, the draw 23% and D. Madryn 23%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Deportivo Moron and 0.9 for D. Madryn (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.33 for D. Madryn. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +131.7%.

Deportivo Moron vs D. Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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