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Getafe B vs Las Palmas B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 09:00

Getafe B

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Las Palmas B

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+16.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.3%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.4%1-17.9%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.6%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-18.0%4+-23.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 61.7% 1.62 +16.3%

Draw 16.9% 28.2% 3.55 -40.0%

Away win 11.3% 22.2% 4.50 -49.1%

Over 2.5 62.7% 60.6% 1.65 +3.5%

Over 3.5 40.4% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 72% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 3–0✓ 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Getafe B2.4

Las Palmas B0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GETAFE B · PPG 2.33

LAS PALMAS B · PPG 0.93

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Getafe B (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +16.3%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -40.0%

Las Palmas B (A) 11.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -49.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Getafe B face Las Palmas B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Getafe B a 72% chance, the draw 17% and Las Palmas B 11%, so Getafe B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Getafe B and 0.8 for Las Palmas B (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Getafe B are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.93 for Las Palmas B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Getafe B vs Las Palmas B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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