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Ilves vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 11:00

Ilves

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

SJK

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.7%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.1%1-110.6%1-26.1%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.2%3-16.0%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.3%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 2.28 +22.2%

Draw 22.7% 3.50 -12.3%

Away win 23.8% 2.74 -20.9%

Over 2.5 62.7% 1.53 -4.1%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.30 -8.5%

BTTS 61.6% 1.42 -12.5%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.85 +0.6%

Away Over 1.5 36.3% 2.05 -25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 30%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves1.9

SJK1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES · PPG 2.00

SJK · PPG 0.83

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=53.6%

Win probability 1X2

Ilves (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +22.2%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.3%

SJK (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves face SJK in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves a 54% chance, the draw 23% and SJK 24%, so Ilves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ilves and 1.2 for SJK (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for SJK. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.2%.

Ilves vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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