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VPS vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 15:00

VPS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mariehamn

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-13.9%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.2%1-17.7%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.7%2-17.5%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.5%3-14.9%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-13.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.9% 78.7% 1.27 -13.8%

Draw 21.9% 21.1% 4.75 +2.4%

Away win 10.2% 9.3% 10.75 +5.8%

Over 2.5 49.7% 61.7% 1.62 -19.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 39.2% 2.55 -15.9%

BTTS 46.5% 52.4% 1.91 -11.2%

Home O1.5 54.7% 71.4% 1.40 -23.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 20.0% 5.00 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.5%

H 68% / xG 2.0-0.4 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.7%

#2 1–0 18.2%

#3 3–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VPS2.0

Mariehamn0.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VPS · PPG 2.00

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.17) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

VPS (H) 67.9%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -13.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.4%

Mariehamn (A) 10.2%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

VPS face Mariehamn in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VPS a 68% chance, the draw 22% and Mariehamn 10%, so VPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for VPS and 0.4 for Mariehamn (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VPS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.17 for Mariehamn. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 4-0.

VPS vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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