Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / Gnistan vs VPS

Gnistan vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 16:00

Gnistan

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

VPS

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-112.9%0-27.1%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.4%2-17.0%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.2%3-12.4%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 2.50 -10.8%

Draw 28.8% 3.25 -3.8%

Away win 35.5% 2.62 -7.0%

Over 2.5 47.4% 1.85 -12.3%

Over 3.5 27.9% 3.10 -8.1%

BTTS 52.3% 1.65 -13.7%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 2.30 -18.4%

Away Over 1.5 36.3% 2.38 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 30%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 0–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gnistan1.0

VPS1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GNISTAN · PPG 2.00

VPS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Gnistan (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.8%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.8%

VPS (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gnistan face VPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gnistan a 36% chance, the draw 29% and VPS 36%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gnistan and 1.1 for VPS (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gnistan are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for VPS.

Gnistan vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions