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Jaro vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 14:00

Jaro

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ilves

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.2%0-25.1%0-33.3%0-4+2.6%1 1-04.4%1-18.7%1-28.5%1-35.6%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.3%2-27.1%2-34.6%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.1%3-14.0%3-24.0%3-32.6%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 30.8% 3.25 +10.2%

Draw 22.1% 27.8% 3.60 -12.3%

Away win 44.0% 50.8% 1.97 -13.3%

Over 2.5 67.1% 61.7% 1.62 +8.7%

Over 3.5 43.9% 40.0% 2.50 +9.8%

BTTS 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Home O1.5 53.3% 41.7% 2.40 +27.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 56.5% 1.77 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.3%

A 44% / xG 1.7-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1✓ 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaro1.7

Ilves2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JARO · PPG 1.00

ILVES · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Jaro (H) 33.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +10.2%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.3%

Ilves (A) 44.0%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaro face Ilves in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaro a 34% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves 44%, so Ilves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jaro and 2.0 for Ilves (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaro are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.43 for Ilves. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +27.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Jaro vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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