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HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

KuPS

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.8%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.6%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.0%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.0%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 2.22 +6.8%

Draw 24.3% 3.35 -11.2%

Away win 27.6% 2.90 -12.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.73 -6.6%

Over 3.5 35.4% 2.80 -0.9%

BTTS 55.8% 1.55 -13.5%

Home Over 1.5 43.5% 2.00 -13.0%

Away Over 1.5 36.3% 2.38 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 30%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.8%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJK Helsinki1.4

KuPS1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.83

KUPS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

HJK Helsinki (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +6.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

KuPS (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJK Helsinki face KuPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJK Helsinki a 48% chance, the draw 24% and KuPS 28%, so HJK Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for HJK Helsinki and 1.1 for KuPS (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJK Helsinki are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.50 for KuPS. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.8%.

HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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