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Zhejiang vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Saturday, July 11, 2026

Zhejiang

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.9%0-23.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.8%1-110.5%1-27.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.6%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 28.9% — — —

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.9% — — —

BTTS 62.4% — — —

Home O1.5 52.5% — — —

Away O1.5 38.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zhejiang1.8

Qingdao Hainiu1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZHEJIANG · PPG 1.50

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=47.4%

Win probability 1X2

Zhejiang (H) 47.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Qingdao Hainiu (A) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Zhejiang face Qingdao Hainiu in China - Super League on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zhejiang a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Qingdao Hainiu 29%, so Zhejiang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Zhejiang and 1.3 for Qingdao Hainiu (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zhejiang are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Qingdao Hainiu.

Zhejiang vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions