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Shandong T. vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 11:35

Shandong T.

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.4%0-22.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.8%1-25.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-16.7%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.5%4+-24.9%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 57.8% 1.73 -9.3%

Draw 21.8% 24.4% 4.10 -6.4%

Away win 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Over 2.5 67.2% 74.1% 1.35 -9.3%

Over 3.5 44.1% 52.6% 1.90 -16.2%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 62.5% 69.0% 1.45 -9.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong T.2.3

Yunnan Yukun1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG T. · PPG 1.88

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Shandong T. (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -9.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.4%

Yunnan Yukun (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong T. face Yunnan Yukun in China - Super League on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong T. a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Yunnan Yukun 26%, so Shandong T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Shandong T. and 1.5 for Yunnan Yukun (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong T. are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.22 for Yunnan Yukun. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 4-3.

Shandong T. vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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