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Shandong T. vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 11:35

Shandong T.

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.4%0-22.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.8%1-25.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-16.7%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.5%4+-24.9%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 57.8% 1.73 -9.3%

Draw 21.8% 24.4% 4.10 -6.4%

Away win 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Over 2.5 67.2% 74.1% 1.35 -9.3%

Over 3.5 44.1% 52.6% 1.90 -16.2%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 62.5% 69.0% 1.45 -9.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong T.2.3

Yunnan Yukun1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG T. · PPG 1.88

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Shandong T. (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -9.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.4%

Yunnan Yukun (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong T. face Yunnan Yukun in China - Super League on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong T. a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Yunnan Yukun 26%, so Shandong T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Shandong T. and 1.5 for Yunnan Yukun (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong T. are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.22 for Yunnan Yukun. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.9%.

Shandong T. vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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