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Tigers FC vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 08:00

Tigers FC

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Queanbeyan City

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.2%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.6%1-17.7%1-25.3%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.2%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-17.5%4+-25.2%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 69.4% 1.44 -22.2%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 23.7% 20.8% 4.80 +8.3%

Over 2.5 66.4% 73.5% 1.36 -9.7%

Over 3.5 43.3% 53.5% 1.87 -19.0%

BTTS 62.9% 69.4% 1.44 -9.4%

Home O1.5 62.5% 75.8% 1.32 -17.5%

Away O1.5 38.4% 38.3% 2.61 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigers FC2.4

Queanbeyan City1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGERS FC · PPG 2.38

QUEANBEYAN CITY · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Tigers FC (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -22.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

Queanbeyan City (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigers FC face Queanbeyan City in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigers FC a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Queanbeyan City 24%, so Tigers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Tigers FC and 1.4 for Queanbeyan City (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigers FC are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.50 for Queanbeyan City. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.1%.

Tigers FC vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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