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Tuggeranong Utd vs Belconnen Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 05:00

Tuggeranong Utd

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Belconnen Utd

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 75.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.2%0-21.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-02.1%1-13.8%1-23.5%1-32.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.3%2-16.1%2-25.6%2-33.4%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.6%3-16.5%3-26.0%3-33.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-111.7%4+-210.7%4+-36.5%4+-4+4.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 57.1% 1.75 +0.3%

Draw 17.5% 26.3% 3.80 -20.1%

Away win 25.2% 29.4% 3.40 -8.6%

Over 2.5 75.8% 76.9% 1.30 -1.5%

Over 3.5 52.9% 58.5% 1.71 -9.5%

BTTS 69.4% 78.1% 1.28 -11.2%

Home O1.5 75.9% 71.9% 1.39 +5.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 51.8% 1.93 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.4%

H 57% / xG 3.2-1.8 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.5%

#2 2–1 6.1%

#3 3–2 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.6%

#5 4–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuggeranong Utd3.2

Belconnen Utd1.8

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.8% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TUGGERANONG UTD · PPG 2.14

BELCONNEN UTD · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=57.3%

Win probability 1X2

Tuggeranong Utd (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +0.3%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -20.1%

Belconnen Utd (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuggeranong Utd face Belconnen Utd in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuggeranong Utd a 57% chance, the draw 18% and Belconnen Utd 25%, so Tuggeranong Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Tuggeranong Utd and 1.8 for Belconnen Utd (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuggeranong Utd are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.71 for Belconnen Utd. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Tuggeranong Utd vs Belconnen Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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