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Gungahlin Juven vs OConnor Knight Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 05:00

Gungahlin Juven

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

OConnor Knight

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.6%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.6%1-18.4%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.5%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-17.5%4+-23.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 69.4% 1.44 -17.1%

Draw 22.5% 22.7% 4.40 -0.6%

Away win 19.9% 20.8% 4.80 -2.7%

Over 2.5 64.0% 78.1% 1.28 -18.1%

Over 3.5 39.9% 62.9% 1.59 -36.6%

BTTS 55.6% 75.8% 1.32 -26.6%

Home O1.5 62.5% 80.0% 1.25 -21.9%

Away O1.5 31.0% 45.0% 2.22 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 3–0 7.7%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gungahlin Juven2.3

OConnor Knight1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GUNGAHLIN JUVEN · PPG 1.80

OCONNOR KNIGHT · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Gungahlin Juven (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.6%

OConnor Knight (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gungahlin Juven face OConnor Knight in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gungahlin Juven a 58% chance, the draw 23% and OConnor Knight 20%, so Gungahlin Juven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Gungahlin Juven and 1.0 for OConnor Knight (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gungahlin Juven are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.60 for OConnor Knight.

Gungahlin Juven vs OConnor Knight Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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