Today / Indonesia - Liga 1 / Persik Kediri vs Persita

Persik Kediri vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 08:30

Persik Kediri

PPG 1.77 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Persita

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.0%0-27.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.5%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.1%3-13.0%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 47.6% 2.10 -33.2%

Draw 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -16.5%

Away win 42.5% 31.3% 3.20 +36.0%

Over 2.5 50.1% 48.8% 2.05 +2.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 27.0% 3.70 +4.0%

BTTS 54.1% 55.6% 1.80 -2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.1%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 10.0%

#3 1–2 8.9%

#4 1–0✓ 8.4%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persik Kediri1.2

Persita1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIK KEDIRI · PPG 1.77

PERSITA · PPG 1.15

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.77) > Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

Persik Kediri (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -33.2%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.5%

Persita (A) 42.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persik Kediri face Persita in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persik Kediri a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Persita 43%, so Persita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Persik Kediri and 1.5 for Persita (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persik Kediri are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.15 for Persita. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Persik Kediri vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions