Persik Kediri vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 28 Brawijaya Stadium· Kediri Sunday, April 19, 2026 08:30

Persik Kediri PPG 1.77

1-0 HIT CS4

Persita PPG 1.15

Away· +36.0% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Persik Kediri face Persita in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persik Kediri a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Persita 43%, so Persita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Persik Kediri and 1.5 for Persita (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persik Kediri are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.15 for Persita. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 31.8%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -33.2%

Draw 25.7%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -16.5%

Away 42.5%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +36.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.1% Odds: 2.05 +2.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 3.70 +4.0%

BTTS 54.1% Odds: 1.80 -2.6%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-0 ✔

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Persik Kediri

1.22

Persita

1.45

Model SuggestionBTTS -2.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -2.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+36.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.77) > Away AVERAGE (1.15)