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Utah Royals W vs Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 02:00

Utah Royals W

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Gotham FC W

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-113.1%0-24.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.6%1-113.0%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.7%2-16.4%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-12.1%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 33.3% 3.00 +23.9%

Draw 31.1% 35.7% 2.80 -12.9%

Away win 27.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.4%

Over 2.5 38.3% 46.5% 2.15 -17.6%

Over 3.5 19.1% 26.7% 3.75 -17.0%

BTTS 48.4% 54.1% 1.85 -10.5%

Home O1.5 35.9% 33.3% 3.00 +7.7%

Away O1.5 21.2% 42.0% 2.38 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.8%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utah Royals W1.0

Gotham FC W0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 2.40

GOTHAM FC W · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Utah Royals W (H) 41.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +23.9%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.9%

Gotham FC W (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utah Royals W face Gotham FC W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utah Royals W a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Gotham FC W 28%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Utah Royals W and 0.7 for Gotham FC W (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utah Royals W are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.80 for Gotham FC W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Utah Royals W vs Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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