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Orlando Pride W vs KC Current W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 00:00

Orlando Pride W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

KC Current W

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.4%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.1%1-110.0%1-27.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.7%3-24.0%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 34.5% 2.90 +33.1%

Draw 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -10.9%

Away win 30.7% 47.6% 2.10 -35.5%

Over 2.5 63.4% 61.7% 1.62 +2.7%

Over 3.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

BTTS 62.4% 66.7% 1.50 -6.4%

Home O1.5 55.1% 45.5% 2.20 +21.2%

Away O1.5 38.4% 54.6% 1.83 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.4%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando Pride W1.9

KC Current W1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 1.67

KC CURRENT W · PPG 0.86

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=45.9%

Win probability 1X2

Orlando Pride W (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +33.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.9%

KC Current W (A) 30.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando Pride W face KC Current W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando Pride W a 46% chance, the draw 23% and KC Current W 31%, so Orlando Pride W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Orlando Pride W and 1.4 for KC Current W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando Pride W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.86 for KC Current W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +49.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Orlando Pride W vs KC Current W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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