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Glenorchy K. vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 10:15

Glenorchy K.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kingborough L.

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-17.5%0-29.4%0-37.9%0-4+9.1%1 1-02.9%1-17.4%1-29.4%1-37.9%1-4+9.1%2 2-01.5%2-13.7%2-24.7%2-33.9%2-4+4.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.2%3-21.6%3-31.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 21.1% 4.75 -23.5%

Draw 20.3% 22.2% 4.50 -5.2%

Away win 66.8% 69.0% 1.45 -3.1%

Over 2.5 65.8% 78.1% 1.28 -15.8%

Over 3.5 42.5% 62.5% 1.60 -32.0%

BTTS 60.3% 74.1% 1.35 -18.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 43.1% 2.32 -16.7%

Away O1.5 68.2% 80.6% 1.24 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -8.7%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob60.3%

A 67% / xG 1.0-2.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.4%

#4 0–3 7.9%

#5 1–3 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glenorchy K.1.0

Kingborough L.2.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 1.33

KINGBOROUGH L. · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Glenorchy K. (H) 12.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -23.5%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -5.2%

Kingborough L. (A) 66.8%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenorchy K. face Kingborough L. in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenorchy K. a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Kingborough L. 67%, so Kingborough L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Glenorchy K. and 2.5 for Kingborough L. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenorchy K. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.71 for Kingborough L..

Glenorchy K. vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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