Today / Brazil - Serie B / Botafogo SP vs Avai

Botafogo SP vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, July 6, 2026, 22:00

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Avai

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-18.9%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.8%1-112.4%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-18.6%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 51.5% 1.94 -5.1%

Draw 27.3% 31.3% 3.20 -7.6%

Away win 23.8% 23.8% 4.20 -0.0%

Over 2.5 47.1% 42.6% 2.35 +10.7%

Over 3.5 27.6% 22.2% 4.50 +14.5%

BTTS 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Home O1.5 43.0% 44.4% 2.25 -3.3%

Away O1.5 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 64.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo SP1.4

Avai0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.14

AVAI · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo SP (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -5.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.6%

Avai (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo SP face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, July 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Avai 24%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Botafogo SP and 0.8 for Avai (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.57 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.5%.

Botafogo SP vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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