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Vila Nova vs Sao Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, July 6, 2026, 22:00

Vila Nova

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sao Bernardo

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.5%0-25.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.1%1-112.6%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 50.8% 1.97 -25.5%

Draw 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -8.5%

Away win 35.8% 25.3% 3.95 +41.4%

Over 2.5 54.1% 45.5% 2.20 +19.0%

Over 3.5 33.2% 23.8% 4.20 +39.4%

BTTS 55.6% 52.6% 1.90 +5.6%

Home O1.5 42.8% 46.5% 2.15 -8.0%

Away O1.5 39.8% 27.8% 3.60 +43.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 64.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Nova1.3

Sao Bernardo1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA NOVA · PPG 2.43

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 2.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.43), Away EXCELLENT (2.29)

Win probability 1X2

Vila Nova (H) 37.8%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -25.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.5%

Sao Bernardo (A) 35.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Nova face Sao Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, July 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Nova a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Sao Bernardo 36%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vila Nova and 1.2 for Sao Bernardo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Nova are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 2.29 for Sao Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +43.3%.

Vila Nova vs Sao Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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