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Ulsan vs Gwangju Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 05:00

Ulsan

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gwangju

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home 72% chance

Model probability 83.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+24.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-12.1%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.8%1-15.6%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.5%2-17.4%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.6%3-16.4%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.7%4+-17.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 83.2% 66.7% 1.50 +24.8%

Draw 12.2% 25.3% 3.95 -51.8%

Away win 4.7% 15.6% 6.40 -69.9%

Over 2.5 59.9% 52.6% 1.90 +13.8%

Over 3.5 37.5% 30.8% 3.25 +21.9%

BTTS 35.1% 51.8% 1.93 -32.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.1%

H 83% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 3–0 13.6%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 4–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan2.6

Gwangju0.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN · PPG 1.33

GWANGJU · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

72%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.33), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan (H) 83.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +24.8%

Draw 12.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -51.8%

Gwangju (A) 4.7%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -69.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan face Gwangju in South-Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan a 83% chance, the draw 12% and Gwangju 5%, so Ulsan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Ulsan and 0.5 for Gwangju (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Gwangju. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.8%. This match finished 5-1.

Ulsan vs Gwangju Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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