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Washington S. W vs Seattle Reign W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 22:30

Washington S. W

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Seattle Reign W

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-19.3%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-111.7%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-17.3%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.2%3-13.1%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 66.7% 1.50 -22.8%

Draw 28.2% 26.7% 3.75 +3.5%

Away win 20.4% 16.7% 6.00 +13.4%

Over 2.5 35.1% 51.8% 1.93 -32.3%

Over 3.5 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

BTTS 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Home O1.5 35.7% 59.9% 1.67 -40.4%

Away O1.5 11.9% 22.2% 4.50 -27.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.5%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.8%

#2 0–0 15.8%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Washington S. W1.3

Seattle Reign W0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WASHINGTON S. W · PPG 1.75

SEATTLE REIGN W · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Washington S. W (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -22.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +3.5%

Seattle Reign W (A) 20.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Washington S. W face Seattle Reign W in USA - NWSL Women on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Washington S. W a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Seattle Reign W 20%, so Washington S. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Washington S. W and 0.6 for Seattle Reign W (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Washington S. W are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Seattle Reign W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Washington S. W vs Seattle Reign W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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