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Bay FC W vs Chicago RS W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:00

Bay FC W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Chicago RS W

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-16.4%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.9%1-110.1%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.1%2-18.1%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.0%3-14.3%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-12.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 62.5% 1.60 -13.4%

Draw 26.7% 27.8% 3.60 -2.3%

Away win 19.2% 19.6% 5.10 -1.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.8% 1.93 -10.8%

Over 3.5 16.7% 29.9% 3.35 -26.4%

BTTS 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 2–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bay FC W1.6

Chicago RS W0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BAY FC W · PPG 1.00

CHICAGO RS W · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Bay FC W (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -13.4%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.3%

Chicago RS W (A) 19.2%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bay FC W face Chicago RS W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bay FC W a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Chicago RS W 19%, so Bay FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bay FC W and 0.5 for Chicago RS W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bay FC W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Chicago RS W. This match finished 0-1.

Bay FC W vs Chicago RS W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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