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KC Current W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 17:00

KC Current W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Portland T. W

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.9%0-26.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.1%1-112.2%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.4%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 58.8% 1.70 -37.8%

Draw 26.5% 28.2% 3.55 -3.6%

Away win 36.9% 23.1% 4.33 +59.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 31.3% 3.20 -4.5%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–0 6.6%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KC Current W1.4

Portland T. W1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KC CURRENT W · PPG 3.00

PORTLAND T. W · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=36.6%

Win probability 1X2

KC Current W (H) 36.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -37.8%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.6%

Portland T. W (A) 36.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +59.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

KC Current W face Portland T. W in USA - NWSL Women on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KC Current W a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Portland T. W 37%, so Portland T. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for KC Current W and 1.3 for Portland T. W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KC Current W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Portland T. W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.8%. This match finished 3-1.

KC Current W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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