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Orlando Pride W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 23:00

Orlando Pride W

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bay FC W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-18.8%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.0%1-112.6%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 57.8% 1.73 -19.4%

Draw 27.7% 27.8% 3.60 -0.2%

Away win 25.7% 23.8% 4.20 +4.8%

Over 2.5 46.7% 56.5% 1.77 -17.3%

Over 3.5 27.8% 33.9% 2.95 -10.8%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 41.7% 57.8% 1.73 -27.9%

Away O1.5 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando Pride W1.4

Bay FC W1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 1.40

BAY FC W · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Orlando Pride W (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -19.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.2%

Bay FC W (A) 25.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando Pride W face Bay FC W in USA - NWSL Women on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando Pride W a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Bay FC W 26%, so Orlando Pride W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Orlando Pride W and 1.0 for Bay FC W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando Pride W are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.50 for Bay FC W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Orlando Pride W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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