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Magni vs Throttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 16:00

Magni

PPG 1.33 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Throttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.2%0-24.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.8%1-19.5%1-27.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.2%3-15.2%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.5%4+-22.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 32.2% — — —

Over 2.5 66.4% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 49.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -11.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magni1.8

Throttur Vogar1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGNI · PPG 1.33

THROTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Magni (H) 45.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Throttur Vogar (A) 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Magni face Throttur Vogar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magni a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Throttur Vogar 32%, so Magni are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Magni and 1.6 for Throttur Vogar (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magni are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.00 for Throttur Vogar. This match finished 4-3.

Magni vs Throttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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