Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Fjolnir vs Kormakur/Hvot

Fjolnir vs Kormakur/Hvot Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 14:00

Fjolnir

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kormakur/Hvot

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.5%0-22.9%0-32.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-02.4%1-15.5%1-26.4%1-34.9%1-4+4.9%2 2-02.7%2-16.1%2-27.1%2-35.5%2-4+5.4%3 3-02.0%3-14.6%3-25.3%3-34.0%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-14.3%4+-24.9%4+-33.8%4+-4+3.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 54.1% 1.85 -29.7%

Draw 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -9.4%

Away win 40.9% 34.5% 2.90 +18.6%

Over 2.5 72.4% 76.9% 1.30 -5.9%

Over 3.5 53.2% 58.8% 1.70 -9.6%

BTTS 69.1% 76.9% 1.30 -10.2%

Home O1.5 61.2% 70.4% 1.42 -13.1%

Away O1.5 69.2% 54.9% 1.82 +25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -11.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.1%

A 41% / xG 2.2-2.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 1–2 6.4%

#3 1–1✓ 5.5%

#4 2–1 6.1%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjolnir2.2

Kormakur/Hvot2.3

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FJOLNIR · PPG 1.83

KORMAKUR/HVOT · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=38.0%

Win probability 1X2

Fjolnir (H) 38.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -29.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.4%

Kormakur/Hvot (A) 40.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjolnir face Kormakur/Hvot in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjolnir a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Kormakur/Hvot 41%, so Kormakur/Hvot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Fjolnir and 2.3 for Kormakur/Hvot (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjolnir are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Kormakur/Hvot. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +25.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Fjolnir vs Kormakur/Hvot Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 2. Deild Predictions