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Throttur Vogar vs Fjolnir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 19:15

Throttur Vogar

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fjolnir

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.5%0-24.3%0-33.5%0-4+3.8%1 1-02.6%1-16.4%1-27.7%1-36.3%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.3%2-15.7%2-26.9%2-35.6%2-4+6.1%3 3-01.4%3-13.4%3-24.1%3-33.4%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.3%4+-22.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 2.80 -10.6%

Draw 20.9% 3.50 -16.1%

Away win 49.7% 2.00 -0.6%

Over 2.5 70.2% 1.33 -6.6%

Over 3.5 48.3% 1.76 -15.0%

BTTS 68.6% 1.30 -10.8%

Home Over 1.5 52.6% 1.79 -5.9%

Away Over 1.5 69.5% 1.51 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 91%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob68.6%

A 50% / xG 1.8-2.4 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.7%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.3%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Throttur Vogar1.8

Fjolnir2.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

THROTTUR VOGAR · PPG 1.40

FJOLNIR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Throttur Vogar (H) 29.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.6%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.1%

Fjolnir (A) 49.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Throttur Vogar face Fjolnir in Iceland - 2. Deild on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Throttur Vogar a 29% chance, the draw 21% and Fjolnir 50%, so Fjolnir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Throttur Vogar and 2.4 for Fjolnir (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Throttur Vogar are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Fjolnir. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Throttur Vogar vs Fjolnir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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