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Selfoss vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 19:15

Selfoss

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Haukar

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.3%0-23.9%0-33.1%0-4+3.2%1 1-02.7%1-16.4%1-27.5%1-35.9%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.6%2-16.0%2-27.1%2-35.6%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.6%3-13.8%3-24.5%3-33.5%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.8%4+-23.3%4+-32.6%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 2.62 -7.2%

Draw 22.0% 3.70 -11.2%

Away win 42.6% 2.10 -10.5%

Over 2.5 67.8% 1.40 -5.1%

Over 3.5 48.3% 1.85 -10.6%

BTTS 68.6% 1.33 -8.8%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.79 -2.6%

Away Over 1.5 69.5% 1.61 +11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 91%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob68.6%

A 43% / xG 1.9-2.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.5%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2✓ 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.0%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Selfoss1.9

Haukar2.4

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.8% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SELFOSS · PPG 2.25

HAUKAR · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Selfoss (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.2%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.2%

Haukar (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Selfoss face Haukar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Selfoss a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Haukar 43%, so Haukar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Selfoss and 2.4 for Haukar (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Selfoss are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Haukar. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Selfoss vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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