Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / KFG vs Selfoss

KFG vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 11 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 19:15

KFG

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Selfoss

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.3%0-23.4%0-33.4%0-4+5.4%1 1-01.4%1-14.3%1-26.4%1-36.4%1-4+10.2%2 2-01.3%2-14.0%2-26.0%2-36.0%2-4+9.6%3 3-00.8%3-12.5%3-23.8%3-33.8%3-4+6.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.8%4+-22.7%4+-32.7%4+-4+4.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% 22.2% 4.50 +11.6%

Draw 18.0% 22.7% 4.40 -12.5%

Away win 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Over 2.5 75.7% 80.0% 1.25 -5.4%

Over 3.5 53.2% 58.5% 1.71 -9.0%

BTTS 69.1% 73.5% 1.36 -6.0%

Home O1.5 54.7% 44.6% 2.24 +22.5%

Away O1.5 72.5% 77.5% 1.29 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 70%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob69.1%

A 56% / xG 1.9-3.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.4%

#2 1–2 6.4%

#3 2–3✓ 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KFG1.9

Selfoss3.0

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KFG · PPG 1.50

SELFOSS · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

KFG (H) 26.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +11.6%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -12.5%

Selfoss (A) 55.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KFG face Selfoss in Iceland - 2. Deild on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KFG a 27% chance, the draw 18% and Selfoss 56%, so Selfoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for KFG and 3.0 for Selfoss (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KFG are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for Selfoss. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 2-3.

KFG vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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