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Haukar vs Kari Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, July 1, 2026, 19:15

Haukar

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kari

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.3%0-21.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-01.8%1-13.9%1-24.2%1-33.0%1-4+2.6%2 2-02.7%2-15.7%2-26.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.6%3-15.6%3-26.0%3-34.3%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-18.5%4+-29.1%4+-36.5%4+-4+5.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 74.1% 1.35 -34.3%

Draw 21.1% 22.2% 4.50 -3.0%

Away win 30.2% 16.7% 6.00 +81.2%

Over 2.5 75.7% 82.0% 1.22 -7.6%

Over 3.5 53.2% 60.6% 1.65 -12.2%

BTTS 69.1% 71.4% 1.40 -3.3%

Home O1.5 75.0% 83.3% 1.20 -10.0%

Away O1.5 52.6% 37.3% 2.68 +41.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.1%

H 49% / xG 2.9-2.1 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.2%

#2 3–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.7%

#4 3–1 5.6%

#5 1–1 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haukar2.9

Kari2.1

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUKAR · PPG 2.60

KARI · PPG 1.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=48.7%

Win probability 1X2

Haukar (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -34.3%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -3.0%

Kari (A) 30.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +81.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haukar face Kari in Iceland - 2. Deild on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haukar a 49% chance, the draw 21% and Kari 30%, so Haukar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Haukar and 2.1 for Kari (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haukar are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.60 for Kari. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +81.2%.

Haukar vs Kari Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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