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V. Olafsvik vs KFG Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

V. Olafsvik

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

KFG

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.9%0-20.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-01.6%1-13.1%1-23.0%1-31.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-02.7%2-15.3%2-25.1%2-33.3%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.1%3-16.1%3-25.9%3-33.8%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-112.6%4+-212.1%4+-37.8%4+-4+5.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.2% 71.4% 1.40 -15.7%

Draw 18.2% 21.7% 4.60 -9.8%

Away win 21.5% 20.0% 5.00 +4.5%

Over 2.5 76.5% 80.0% 1.25 -4.4%

Over 3.5 52.9% 66.2% 1.51 -20.1%

BTTS 68.6% 75.2% 1.33 -8.8%

Home O1.5 77.8% 82.0% 1.22 -5.1%

Away O1.5 49.7% 45.0% 2.22 +10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob68.6%

H 60% / xG 3.4-1.9 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.1%

#2 3–2 5.9%

#3 2–1 5.3%

#4 4–1 5.2%

#5 2–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

V. Olafsvik3.4

KFG1.9

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.5% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

V. OLAFSVIK · PPG 1.60

KFG · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

V. Olafsvik (H) 60.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -15.7%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -9.8%

KFG (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

V. Olafsvik face KFG in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives V. Olafsvik a 60% chance, the draw 18% and KFG 22%, so V. Olafsvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for V. Olafsvik and 1.9 for KFG (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, V. Olafsvik are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for KFG. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 1-0.

V. Olafsvik vs KFG Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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