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CF America vs Toluca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura - 15 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 03:10

CF America

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Toluca

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.3%0-119.5%0-29.3%0-33.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.9%1-112.4%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-04.1%2-13.9%2-21.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.9%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% 35.0% 2.86 -33.1%

Draw 34.7% 29.4% 3.40 +18.0%

Away win 41.9% 42.7% 2.34 -1.9%

Over 2.5 21.5% 51.3% 1.95 -58.1%

Over 3.5 7.8% 29.0% 3.45 -73.1%

BTTS 29.0% 57.8% 1.73 -49.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob29.0%

A 42% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 22% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.3%

#2 0–1 19.5%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 1–1 12.4%

#5 0–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF America0.6

Toluca1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.5% · O3.5 PROB 7.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CF AMERICA · PPG 1.43

TOLUCA · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

CF America (H) 23.4%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -33.1%

Draw 34.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +18.0%

Toluca (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF America face Toluca in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF America a 23% chance, the draw 35% and Toluca 42%, so Toluca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for CF America and 1.0 for Toluca (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF America are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.71 for Toluca. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 2-1.

CF America vs Toluca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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