CF America vs Toluca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 15 Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes· Mexico City Sunday, April 19, 2026 03:10

CF America PPG 1.43

2-1 MISS

Toluca PPG 1.71

Draw· +18.0% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

CF America face Toluca in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF America a 23% chance, the draw 35% and Toluca 42%, so Toluca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for CF America and 1.0 for Toluca (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF America are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.71 for Toluca. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 23.4%

Odds: 2.86 EV: -33.1%

Draw 34.7%

Odds: 3.40 EV: +18.0%

Away 41.9%

Odds: 2.34 EV: -1.9%

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 21.5% Odds: 1.95 -58.1%

Over 3.5 7.8% Odds: 3.45 -73.1%

BTTS 29.0% Odds: 1.73 -49.8%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

CF America

0.64

Toluca

0.96

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.71)