Club Leon vs Juarez Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 15 Estadio Leon· Leon Sunday, April 19, 2026 03:06

Club Leon PPG 2.00

3-1 HIT CS5

Juarez PPG 1.29

Over3.5· +27.7% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Leon face Juarez in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Leon a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Juarez 34%, so Club Leon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Club Leon and 1.7 for Juarez (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Leon are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Juarez. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.3%

Odds: 2.16 EV: -4.3%

Draw 21.8%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -21.5%

Away 33.9%

Odds: 3.00 EV: +1.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 69.5% Odds: 1.65 +14.7%

Over 3.5 48.2% Odds: 2.65 +27.7%

BTTS 69.2% Odds: 1.55 +7.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 3-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Club Leon

1.92

Juarez

1.67

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +14.7% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+27.7%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)