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Club Leon vs Juarez Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura - 15 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 03:06

Club Leon

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Juarez

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.6%0-23.8%0-32.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.3%1-18.9%1-27.4%1-34.1%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.3%3-15.5%3-24.5%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.1%4+-23.4%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 46.3% 2.16 -4.3%

Draw 21.8% 27.8% 3.60 -21.5%

Away win 33.9% 33.3% 3.00 +1.7%

Over 2.5 69.5% 60.6% 1.65 +14.7%

Over 3.5 48.2% 37.7% 2.65 +27.7%

BTTS 69.2% 64.5% 1.55 +7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.2%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1✓ 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Leon1.9

Juarez1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB LEON · PPG 2.00

JUAREZ · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Club Leon (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -4.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -21.5%

Juarez (A) 33.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Leon face Juarez in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Leon a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Juarez 34%, so Club Leon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Club Leon and 1.7 for Juarez (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Leon are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Juarez. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Club Leon vs Juarez Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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