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P-Iirot vs HJS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 13:00

P-Iirot

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

HJS

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.7%0-24.8%0-32.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.7%1-19.7%1-28.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.9%2-18.2%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.7%3-14.6%3-23.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.9%4+-22.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 37.0% 2.70 -0.4%

Draw 21.8% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Away win 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 42.3% 50.0% 2.00 -15.4%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 53.6% 50.0% 2.00 +7.2%

Away O1.5 49.8% 61.7% 1.62 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

H 37% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

P-Iirot1.7

HJS1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

P-IIROT · PPG 2.40

HJS · PPG 2.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.40), Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

P-Iirot (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -0.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

HJS (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

P-Iirot face HJS in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives P-Iirot a 37% chance, the draw 22% and HJS 41%, so HJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for P-Iirot and 1.7 for HJS (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, P-Iirot are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.20 for HJS. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.2%.

P-Iirot vs HJS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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