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GrIFK vs NJS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B · Matchday 11 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 15:30

GrIFK

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

NJS

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.3%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-17.9%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.4%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-17.6%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.8% 85.5% 1.17 -23.0%

Draw 19.8% 16.7% 6.00 +11.3%

Away win 14.4% 9.1% 11.00 +35.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 80.0% 1.25 -20.1%

Over 3.5 39.8% 59.9% 1.67 -33.5%

BTTS 52.8% 60.6% 1.65 -12.9%

Home O1.5 61.2% 85.5% 1.17 -28.4%

Away O1.5 22.5% 23.5% 4.25 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 66% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.3%

#2 3–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GrIFK2.4

NJS0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GRIFK · PPG 1.20

NJS · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.20), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

GrIFK (H) 65.8%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -23.0%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +11.3%

NJS (A) 14.4%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +35.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

GrIFK face NJS in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GrIFK a 66% chance, the draw 20% and NJS 14%, so GrIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for GrIFK and 0.8 for NJS (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GrIFK are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.20 for NJS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.0%. This match finished 2-0.

GrIFK vs NJS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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