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Ilves B vs EBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B · Matchday 10 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 12:00

Ilves B

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

EBK

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 75.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.2%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.5%1-16.2%1-23.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.8%2-18.7%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-18.1%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-111.4%4+-26.3%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% 71.4% 1.40 -9.6%

Draw 17.7% 22.7% 4.40 -13.3%

Away win 17.7% 18.2% 5.50 -1.6%

Over 2.5 66.3% 82.0% 1.22 -19.1%

Over 3.5 48.3% 63.7% 1.57 -24.2%

BTTS 61.6% 74.1% 1.35 -16.8%

Home O1.5 75.4% 80.0% 1.25 -5.8%

Away O1.5 36.3% 42.0% 2.38 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 65% / xG 2.8-1.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–0 7.3%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves B2.8

EBK1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES B · PPG 1.33

EBK · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=64.6%

Win probability 1X2

Ilves B (H) 64.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -9.6%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -13.3%

EBK (A) 17.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves B face EBK in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves B a 65% chance, the draw 18% and EBK 18%, so Ilves B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Ilves B and 1.1 for EBK (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves B are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.25 for EBK. This match finished 3-2.

Ilves B vs EBK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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